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2024 Local Market Outlook

2024 Local Market Outlook

The all-encompassing theme behind the outlook for world markets in 2024 is the decreasing interest rate cycle. South Africa, like the rest of the world, will follow the lead of the U.S. Fed on when it begins its cutting cycle. While markets continue to adjust...

2024 Global Market Outlook

2024 Global Market Outlook

2024 is set to be an interesting year as central banks shift gear and move into the next stage of the rate cycle. While interest rate cuts will undoubtedly play a leading role in the direction of global equity markets, countries making up nearly 70% of global GDP will...

Wood for the Trees | November 2023

Wood for the Trees | November 2023

Christmas came early for global stock markets in November. All global indices finished the month up significantly. The S&P 500 was up 8.7% for the month, representing the best monthly performance since July 2022. The catalyst for the big move in risk assets was...

Wood for the Trees | 13 November 2023

Wood for the Trees | 13 November 2023

Global equity indices saw declines for the third month in a row. The S&P 500 declined 2.2% in October, sending the index down 8.8% over the last 3 months.October saw more of the same, better-than-expected economic data demonstrating a resilient US economy with...

Wood for the Trees | September 2023

Wood for the Trees | September 2023

As we are all aware, trees don’t grow to the sky and markets don’t go up in a straight line. If you were not aware of this, the market’s performance in September definitely demonstrated it. The S&P 500 finished down more than 5% in September bringing its YTD...

Aspen Pharmacare Patience is the Active Ingredient

Aspen Pharmacare Patience is the Active Ingredient

The once darling of the stock market has had its fair share of challenges. Some originating from its own decisions, others from factors outside of management’s control. However, Aspen Pharmacare enters 2024 with a strong balance sheet, drivers for strong earnings...

Wood for the trees | August 2023

Wood for the trees | August 2023

“We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies”The markets seemed to decompress in August as market participants waited with bated breath for Jerome Powell’s address at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium for any signs as to the Fed’s next move. With the U.S....

SA Outlook 2023 – Mid-Year Review

SA Outlook 2023 – Mid-Year Review

If we look back on the year so far, the market has faced a number of obstacles from regional bank failures, escalating tensions between China and the U.S., continuation of the war in Ukraine, to a surge in AI-related technology. While at the same time, central banks...

2023 Global Mid-Year Update

2023 Global Mid-Year Update

If we look back on the year so far, the market has faced a number of obstacles from regional bank failures, escalating tensions between China and the U.S., continuation of the war in Ukraine, to a surge in AI-related technology. While at the same time, central banks...

Wood for the Trees | May 2023

Wood for the Trees | May 2023

At home, it seems we can’t stop scoring own goals, adding to the list of load shedding, inflation, and interest rate hikes. We heard speculation that the SA government may or may not have supplied weapons to Russia. While a who’s who in government came out and denied...

Wood for the Trees | April 2023

Wood for the Trees | April 2023

April felt a little bit like that meme where one guy does something crazy, and the second says to the guy next to him, “hold my beer”.  March gave us the second and third largest bank failures in U.S. history, prompting the Fed to step in with emergency lending...

Wood for the Trees | March 2023

Wood for the Trees | March 2023

Looking at how the major equity indices finished the month, it is hard to believe what actually transpired in March.  In the space of a 2-week period, we had the second and third largest bank failures in US history, as well as Credit Suisse, a “too big to fail” bank,...

Wood for the Trees | February 2023

Wood for the Trees | February 2023

After a tremendous start to the year in January, with the market looking forward to Fed rates peaking in May and forecasting several cuts going into the end of the year. We hit some turbulence in February as global markets faced stronger-than-expected economic data in...

2023 Local Market Outlook

2023 Local Market Outlook

New Year New Opportunity As set out in our Offshore Outlook – Mirror Image, the major news outlets continue to beat the drum on the impending doom of global recession, yet the expectations are for a recession that is mild; inflicting a de minimis amount of pain across...

SA Listed Property: Strength to Strength

SA Listed Property: Strength to Strength

SA Listed Property remains one of our most favoured sectors. In our opinion it offers significant value at current levels and results across the sector attest to this. In this short video we take a look into the most recent price movement addressing the key points of...

Wood for the Trees | November 2022

Wood for the Trees | November 2022

November continued where October left off and reminded us that is it important to remain patient and invested. Over the last 2 months the S&P 500 has rallied 14.5%, while closer to home the JSE All Share was up a whopping 18.3%. As of this writing, the All Share...

Wood for the Trees | October 2022

Wood for the Trees | October 2022

October brings with it the annual Halloween festivities and is traditionally a time for remembering the dead. Global markets certainly came to the party and presented investors with a treat. After a tough September, October gave investors some respite, delivering 7%...

Wood for the Trees | September 2022

Wood for the Trees | September 2022

September proved an eventful month for all the wrong reasons. Substantial declines across the globe characterised price action, with the US setting the tone from the middle of the month after another poor inflation print. Central bankers, determined to get the...

Wood for the Trees | June 2022

Wood for the Trees | June 2022

Everybody exhale… After holding their breath for 6 months in the face of the consistent selling of risk assets so far this year, investors collectively breathed out in July as this month marked the first meaningful bounce in risk assets from market lows this year....

Wood for the Trees | May 2022

Wood for the Trees | May 2022

The lead graphic for this month was just going to be the four letters highlighted in colour above. I thought it was pretty self-explanatory until I started googling what these four letters could also stand for. It's a rabbit hole, don't go there. But one of the tamer...

Wood for the Trees | September 2022

Wood for the Trees | March 2022

With central bank policy decisions front and centre this year, we felt it appropriate to use our opening graphic to clarify some of the terminology likely to be used by market commentators. Unfortunately, for the bulls, we'll be looking at the left-hand side of the...

You are getting Disney+ for free

You are getting Disney+ for free

We believe DIS is currently offering a very compelling entry point into a top-quality company with huge brand power; supporting our investing theme of Services & Experiences plus it has significant pricing power. At current levels DIS is trading at a large...

Wood for the Trees | May 2022

Local Market Outlook 2022

Mirror ImageCurrent valuations suggest an environment that is under significantly greater stress than what the actual real economy suggests. SA corporates remain cash rich, consumers are financially better off than they have been for many years and SA banks are over...

Wood for the Trees | May 2022

Offshore Market Outlook 2022

ANOTHER GOOD YEARWe enter 2022 quietly confident that Global Equity markets can continue their strong run of delivering positive returns. Although expectations will have to be dialled down from the 20%+ returns experienced over the past 3 years, to a more normal...

Wood for the Trees | June 2022

Wood for the Trees | November 2021

Unfortunately, there was only ever going to be one lead image for our November newsletter: Omicron. You will all have read by now the controversy surrounding the measures taken by international governments against South Africa in a poorly researched response to the...

Wood for the Trees | October 2021

Wood for the Trees | October 2021

We’ve led with an earnings season graphic this month as we acknowledge yet another stellar reporting season for the vast majority of the S&P500. Up more than 40% year on year, with results beating expectations by a healthy 10%. No wonder equity markets pushed higher...

Peeling back the onion

Peeling back the onion

Current regulatory headwinds are putting pressure on the valuations of many Chinese tech giants by depressing valuations, and causing a distraction from the evident scale, dominance, and cash-generative nature of these businesses.We remain confident in the growth...

Wood for the Trees | September 2022

Wood for the Trees | August 2021

The last month of winter in the southern hemisphere proved to be a profitable month for risk assets as the All Country World Index pushed higher by more than 2%. There was a strong trend to most sectors barring commodities, which took a breather, particularly in the...

Wood for the Trees | June 2022

New Oriental Education

New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU)EDU is a large-scale leading provider of private tutoring in China, that offer services both offline and online. In a country where education is one of the main keys to social mobility, Chinese parents are often willing...

Wood for the Trees | September 2022

SA Consumer, Healthier than you think

There is a general negative perception that South African consumers are under strain, and this is flowing through into suppressed valuations of consumer-focused cyclical stocks in general and the apparel retail and bank stocks specifically.   While 2020 was a...

Wood for the Trees | October 2021

Wood for the Trees | June 2021

This month’s lead graphic is a reminder that the world is not yet clear of the threat posed by COVID-19. And while much of the First World has made significant strides in vaccinating their population, the emergence of the Delta variant has raised further fresh...

Wood for the Trees | May 2022

What is the Inflation Narrative?

A lot of news is currently circling about a potential pick-up in inflation causing the market to crash. Let’s be clear, there is no direct link to inflation having a negative impact on equity markets.  The impact on equity markets will come from the US Fed having to...

Wood for the Trees | May 2022

Wood for the Trees | May 2021

We’re a little quieter this month after the spate of earnings reports that came through for the Q1 earnings season in April. Just a 2-month breather from here before it all winds up again offshore. This month was another strong performance from Local equities, with a...

Wood for the Trees | June 2022

Wood for the Trees | April 2021

No surprise this month that we’ve led with US Q1 earnings season in our headline graphic. After such strong price moves higher from the COVID market lows in late March 2020, market participants were looking to make sure that these higher stock prices would indeed be...

Wood for the Trees | May 2022

Wood for the Trees | February 2021

We headline this month with perhaps the biggest question facing investors in 2021… will inflation kill the risk asset rally? Liam spends some time looking at both the inflation debate, as well the rotation from growth to value considering rising GDP growth...

Wood for the Trees | October 2021

Wood for the Trees | January 2021

We couldn’t lead a January review without making mention of the alarming events witnessed on Capitol Hill in the first week of January. By now you will have all read ad nauseum about what happened and why, but this surely must be one of the lowest points in recent US...