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2025 Local Outlook: Multiplication before addition

2025 Local Outlook: Multiplication before addition

   As we head into 2025, South Africa’s political and economic landscape is providing the foundations for an uptick in GDP growth that we haven’t experienced in over a decade. This growth has not yet been incorporated into earnings expectations of domestic...

Wood for the Trees | November 2024

Wood for the Trees | November 2024

With the end of the year fast approaching it’s a good time to look back at what has proven to be a great year for equity returns despite all the geopolitical events that have unfolded in 2024.  Global stock markets have given investors reason to cheer with the S&P...

Wood for the Trees | September 2024 

Wood for the Trees | September 2024 

Jerome Powell, and the US Fed finally gave us what we have been waiting for. The market felt some pressure as we exited August on concerns the Fed was behind the curve and fears grew the US economy was heading into a recession. This headwind turned into a tailwind in...

Wood for the Trees | August 2024

Wood for the Trees | August 2024

  August was the month where the U.S. Fed’s trade-off of slowing aggregate demand in order to bring down inflation, or slowing aggregate demand too much causing a recession, shifted to the latter.  There was risk the Fed was behind the curve which increased the...

Wood for the Trees | July 2024

Wood for the Trees | July 2024

  This month’s Wood For The Trees will be short and punchy, given that we have recently sent out our Local and Global mid-year updates in July. July proved to be a pivotal month for global equities, as it delivered economic data that finally began to show the...

2024 Global Mid-Year Update

2024 Global Mid-Year Update

Click here to access our Local Mid-Year UpdateAs we entered 2024, our outlook was focused on the U.S. Fed beginning to cut rates and the positive catalyst that it would provide to equity markets. Rate markets projected 6 cuts for 2024 with the first cut set to occur...

2024 Local Mid-Year Update

2024 Local Mid-Year Update

Click here to access our Global Mid-Year Update  We started off the year looking forward to the initiation of the decreasing interest rate cycle. South African equity was priced at a significant discount given the economic climate and expectations of a potential...

Wood for the Trees | May 2024

Wood for the Trees | May 2024

  The South African national elections took center stage in May and the outcomes that will unfold will no doubt be front and center over the next few weeks. While global markets continue to perform well, most of our attention this week will be on what’s going on...

SA Elections Uncharted Territory

SA Elections Uncharted Territory

What resulted came in far short of this with the ANC falling to 40.2% (from 57% in 2019), DA 21.8% (from 20.7%), MK 14.6% (from not existing sixth months ago) and the EFF 9.5% (from 10.8%). Scource: aljazeera.com: South Africa elections results-2024 A drop of this...

BHP Bid for AGL – BHP Walks Away

BHP Bid for AGL – BHP Walks Away

Throughout the weeklong deadline extension, BHP worked extensively to address concerns AGL had with BHP’s proposal. Despite numerous engagements with AGL and its advisors, as well as the rejection of a third updated bid from BHP, BHP has made the decision to walk away...

BHP Bid for AGL – Likelihood of Deal Reduces

BHP Bid for AGL – Likelihood of Deal Reduces

  The Revised Proposal An all-share offer for AGL by the BHP Group Preceded by separate demergers by AGL of its entire shareholdings in Anglo American Platinum Limited (AMS) and Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO) to AGL shareholders The two parts of the proposal are...

Wood for the Trees | April 2024

Wood for the Trees | April 2024

  Global equity markets have been on a tear since October as investors reentered global stock markets ahead of expectations of imminent rate cuts from the major central banks. That narrative changed in April as stronger-than-expected economic data and stickier...

BHP Makes a Bid for Anglo American

BHP Makes a Bid for Anglo American

The Proposal An all-share offer for Anglo American (AGL) by the BHP Group Preceded by separate demergers by AGL of its entire shareholdings in Anglo American Platinum limited (AMS) and Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO) to AGL shareholders The two parts of the proposal are...

Wood for the Trees | February 2024

Wood for the Trees | February 2024

  The US FED has been clear in its narrative, that it is only prepared to cut rates once they are confident that inflation is on a trajectory to return to 2%. Entering 2024, the rates markets were betting on 6 rate cuts for the year with the first cut predicated...

2024 Local Market Outlook

2024 Local Market Outlook

The all-encompassing theme behind the outlook for world markets in 2024 is the decreasing interest rate cycle. South Africa, like the rest of the world, will follow the lead of the U.S. Fed on when it begins its cutting cycle. While markets continue to adjust...

2024 Global Market Outlook

2024 Global Market Outlook

2024 is set to be an interesting year as central banks shift gear and move into the next stage of the rate cycle. While interest rate cuts will undoubtedly play a leading role in the direction of global equity markets, countries making up nearly 70% of global GDP will...

Wood for the Trees | November 2023

Wood for the Trees | November 2023

Christmas came early for global stock markets in November. All global indices finished the month up significantly. The S&P 500 was up 8.7% for the month, representing the best monthly performance since July 2022. The catalyst for the big move in risk assets was...

Wood for the Trees | 13 November 2023

Wood for the Trees | 13 November 2023

Global equity indices saw declines for the third month in a row. The S&P 500 declined 2.2% in October, sending the index down 8.8% over the last 3 months.October saw more of the same, better-than-expected economic data demonstrating a resilient US economy with...

Wood for the Trees | September 2023

Wood for the Trees | September 2023

As we are all aware, trees don’t grow to the sky and markets don’t go up in a straight line. If you were not aware of this, the market’s performance in September definitely demonstrated it. The S&P 500 finished down more than 5% in September bringing its YTD...

Aspen Pharmacare Patience is the Active Ingredient

Aspen Pharmacare Patience is the Active Ingredient

The once darling of the stock market has had its fair share of challenges. Some originating from its own decisions, others from factors outside of management’s control. However, Aspen Pharmacare enters 2024 with a strong balance sheet, drivers for strong earnings...

Wood for the trees | August 2023

Wood for the trees | August 2023

“We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies”The markets seemed to decompress in August as market participants waited with bated breath for Jerome Powell’s address at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium for any signs as to the Fed’s next move. With the U.S....

SA Outlook 2023 – Mid-Year Review

SA Outlook 2023 – Mid-Year Review

If we look back on the year so far, the market has faced a number of obstacles from regional bank failures, escalating tensions between China and the U.S., continuation of the war in Ukraine, to a surge in AI-related technology. While at the same time, central banks...

2023 Global Mid-Year Update

2023 Global Mid-Year Update

If we look back on the year so far, the market has faced a number of obstacles from regional bank failures, escalating tensions between China and the U.S., continuation of the war in Ukraine, to a surge in AI-related technology. While at the same time, central banks...

Wood for the Trees | May 2023

Wood for the Trees | May 2023

At home, it seems we can’t stop scoring own goals, adding to the list of load shedding, inflation, and interest rate hikes. We heard speculation that the SA government may or may not have supplied weapons to Russia. While a who’s who in government came out and denied...

Wood for the Trees | April 2023

Wood for the Trees | April 2023

April felt a little bit like that meme where one guy does something crazy, and the second says to the guy next to him, “hold my beer”.  March gave us the second and third largest bank failures in U.S. history, prompting the Fed to step in with emergency lending...

Wood for the Trees | March 2023

Wood for the Trees | March 2023

Looking at how the major equity indices finished the month, it is hard to believe what actually transpired in March.  In the space of a 2-week period, we had the second and third largest bank failures in US history, as well as Credit Suisse, a “too big to fail” bank,...

Wood for the Trees | February 2023

Wood for the Trees | February 2023

After a tremendous start to the year in January, with the market looking forward to Fed rates peaking in May and forecasting several cuts going into the end of the year. We hit some turbulence in February as global markets faced stronger-than-expected economic data in...

2023 Local Market Outlook

2023 Local Market Outlook

New Year New Opportunity As set out in our Offshore Outlook – Mirror Image, the major news outlets continue to beat the drum on the impending doom of global recession, yet the expectations are for a recession that is mild; inflicting a de minimis amount of pain across...