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Markets posted strong gains in October, with major indices hitting record highs during the month. Gains were buoyed by the Fed’s 25bp interest rate cut, easing US-China tariff tensions, better-than-expected 3Q25 earnings, and AI investment momentum. Year-to-Date (YTD)...
September is known among market professionals as the curse month, given its poor historical record. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a negative 1.1 percent return in September, the only month with solidly negative results. The most cited reasons for this...
August was another solid month for global equity performanceAugust marked the end of second quarter earnings reporting season in the U.S. Once again, corporate America goes from strength to strength, earnings came in 7.2% ahead of expectations, delivering growth of...
Mid-Year Outlook: We remain optimisticWood for the Trees takes a slightly different turn this month. In this edition we take a look back at our 2025 forecasts we made at the beginning of the year and adjust our outlook as we head into year end, from both an offshore...
The adage goes “Sell in May and go away” which essentially refers to the onset of summer holidays in the U.S. and lacklustre markets as most senior traders and portfolio managers head to their beach houses. If you had followed through on this, you would have missed...
The Next 100 Days and Beyond The 30th of April marked President Trump’s first 100 days in office, a period that has brought extreme uncertainty and tariffs that have shaken global markets. After pulling back 5% in March, the proverbial “shit” hit the fan on the 2nd of...
When it rains it pours, as we focused on Trump’s “Liberation Day” to get some clarity on what the imposition of U.S. tariffs would look like and who/what they would be applied to. At the same time, we saw a developing budget situation at home that escalated quickly...
With the end of the year fast approaching it’s a good time to look back at what has proven to be a great year for equity returns despite all the geopolitical events that have unfolded in 2024. Global stock markets have given investors reason to cheer with the S&P...
Jerome Powell, and the US Fed finally gave us what we have been waiting for. The market felt some pressure as we exited August on concerns the Fed was behind the curve and fears grew the US economy was heading into a recession. This headwind turned into a tailwind in...
August was the month where the U.S. Fed’s trade-off of slowing aggregate demand in order to bring down inflation, or slowing aggregate demand too much causing a recession, shifted to the latter. There was risk the Fed was behind the curve which increased the...
This month’s Wood For The Trees will be short and punchy, given that we have recently sent out our Local and Global mid-year updates in July. July proved to be a pivotal month for global equities, as it delivered economic data that finally began to show the...
The South African national elections took center stage in May and the outcomes that will unfold will no doubt be front and center over the next few weeks. While global markets continue to perform well, most of our attention this week will be on what’s going on...
Global equity markets have been on a tear since October as investors reentered global stock markets ahead of expectations of imminent rate cuts from the major central banks. That narrative changed in April as stronger-than-expected economic data and stickier...
The US FED has been clear in its narrative, that it is only prepared to cut rates once they are confident that inflation is on a trajectory to return to 2%. Entering 2024, the rates markets were betting on 6 rate cuts for the year with the first cut predicated...
Christmas came early for global stock markets in November. All global indices finished the month up significantly. The S&P 500 was up 8.7% for the month, representing the best monthly performance since July 2022. The catalyst for the big move in risk assets was...
Global equity indices saw declines for the third month in a row. The S&P 500 declined 2.2% in October, sending the index down 8.8% over the last 3 months.October saw more of the same, better-than-expected economic data demonstrating a resilient US economy with...
As we are all aware, trees don’t grow to the sky and markets don’t go up in a straight line. If you were not aware of this, the market’s performance in September definitely demonstrated it. The S&P 500 finished down more than 5% in September bringing its YTD...
“We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies”The markets seemed to decompress in August as market participants waited with bated breath for Jerome Powell’s address at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium for any signs as to the Fed’s next move. With the U.S....
At home, it seems we can’t stop scoring own goals, adding to the list of load shedding, inflation, and interest rate hikes. We heard speculation that the SA government may or may not have supplied weapons to Russia. While a who’s who in government came out and denied...
April felt a little bit like that meme where one guy does something crazy, and the second says to the guy next to him, “hold my beer”. March gave us the second and third largest bank failures in U.S. history, prompting the Fed to step in with emergency lending...
Looking at how the major equity indices finished the month, it is hard to believe what actually transpired in March. In the space of a 2-week period, we had the second and third largest bank failures in US history, as well as Credit Suisse, a “too big to fail” bank,...
After a tremendous start to the year in January, with the market looking forward to Fed rates peaking in May and forecasting several cuts going into the end of the year. We hit some turbulence in February as global markets faced stronger-than-expected economic data in...
November continued where October left off and reminded us that is it important to remain patient and invested. Over the last 2 months the S&P 500 has rallied 14.5%, while closer to home the JSE All Share was up a whopping 18.3%. As of this writing, the All Share...
October brings with it the annual Halloween festivities and is traditionally a time for remembering the dead. Global markets certainly came to the party and presented investors with a treat. After a tough September, October gave investors some respite, delivering 7%...
September proved an eventful month for all the wrong reasons. Substantial declines across the globe characterised price action, with the US setting the tone from the middle of the month after another poor inflation print. Central bankers, determined to get the...
Everybody exhale… After holding their breath for 6 months in the face of the consistent selling of risk assets so far this year, investors collectively breathed out in July as this month marked the first meaningful bounce in risk assets from market lows this year....
The lead graphic for this month was just going to be the four letters highlighted in colour above. I thought it was pretty self-explanatory until I started googling what these four letters could also stand for. It's a rabbit hole, don't go there. But one of the tamer...
With central bank policy decisions front and centre this year, we felt it appropriate to use our opening graphic to clarify some of the terminology likely to be used by market commentators. Unfortunately, for the bulls, we'll be looking at the left-hand side of the...
Unfortunately, there was only ever going to be one lead image for our November newsletter: Omicron. You will all have read by now the controversy surrounding the measures taken by international governments against South Africa in a poorly researched response to the...
We’ve led with an earnings season graphic this month as we acknowledge yet another stellar reporting season for the vast majority of the S&P500. Up more than 40% year on year, with results beating expectations by a healthy 10%. No wonder equity markets pushed higher...
The last month of winter in the southern hemisphere proved to be a profitable month for risk assets as the All Country World Index pushed higher by more than 2%. There was a strong trend to most sectors barring commodities, which took a breather, particularly in the...
This month’s lead graphic is a reminder that the world is not yet clear of the threat posed by COVID-19. And while much of the First World has made significant strides in vaccinating their population, the emergence of the Delta variant has raised further fresh...
We’re a little quieter this month after the spate of earnings reports that came through for the Q1 earnings season in April. Just a 2-month breather from here before it all winds up again offshore. This month was another strong performance from Local equities, with a...
No surprise this month that we’ve led with US Q1 earnings season in our headline graphic. After such strong price moves higher from the COVID market lows in late March 2020, market participants were looking to make sure that these higher stock prices would indeed be...
We headline this month with perhaps the biggest question facing investors in 2021… will inflation kill the risk asset rally? Liam spends some time looking at both the inflation debate, as well the rotation from growth to value considering rising GDP growth...
We couldn’t lead a January review without making mention of the alarming events witnessed on Capitol Hill in the first week of January. By now you will have all read ad nauseum about what happened and why, but this surely must be one of the lowest points in recent US...
