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AI FIRMLY IN THE DRIVING SEATJuly brought some volatility to global equity markets. The month began with confidence being tested by geopolitical shocks, rising oil prices, technology-sector deleveraging and widening macro divergence. By early August, markets had...
Easing Conditions Eroded by Iranian WarThe conflict in Iran has materially altered our expectations for 2026. At the start of the year, we anticipated a combination of structural improvements in South Africa's economic fundamentals and a cyclical easing in financial...
In our outlook for 2026 at the onset of the year, we painted an investment landscape that was supportive of a third consecutive year of solid double-digit returns for global equity markets. We saw a macroeconomic backdrop that supported an early-stage economic cycle;...
The overwhelming excitement surrounding this listing is driven by the fact that SpaceX is a truly unique enterprise with virtually no direct competition in the specialized sectors where it operates. The corporation consists of three high-quality, robust operating...
FEMO – Fabulous Earnings MomentumMay followed April’s strong equity market performance. From a geopolitical standpoint, May can be characterized by the on-again, off-again peace talks. While the world has its fingers crossed for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,...
Improvise, Adapt and Overcome2026 was on track to be a very decent year for equity markets, more than decent in fact. The AI trade had its challenges, but the exuberance was still largely in play, interest rates were pointing lower, and U.S. fiscal policy was...
As we begin 2026, the South African economy has gathered meaningful momentum. Investor interest has measurably improved, with various benchmark instruments displaying multiyear strength and confidence returning. Consequently, global financial institutions have...
2025 marked the third consecutive year of double-digit gains for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 was up circa 17%, despite this year’s solid performance it underperformed other major markets, with the South African ALSI and the Emerging Markets leading the bunch...
Markets posted strong gains in October, with major indices hitting record highs during the month. Gains were buoyed by the Fed’s 25bp interest rate cut, easing US-China tariff tensions, better-than-expected 3Q25 earnings, and AI investment momentum. Year-to-Date (YTD)...
September is known among market professionals as the curse month, given its poor historical record. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a negative 1.1 percent return in September, the only month with solidly negative results. The most cited reasons for this...
August was another solid month for global equity performanceAugust marked the end of second quarter earnings reporting season in the U.S. Once again, corporate America goes from strength to strength, earnings came in 7.2% ahead of expectations, delivering growth of...
Mid-Year Outlook: We remain optimisticWood for the Trees takes a slightly different turn this month. In this edition we take a look back at our 2025 forecasts we made at the beginning of the year and adjust our outlook as we head into year end, from both an offshore...
The adage goes “Sell in May and go away” which essentially refers to the onset of summer holidays in the U.S. and lacklustre markets as most senior traders and portfolio managers head to their beach houses. If you had followed through on this, you would have missed...
The Next 100 Days and Beyond The 30th of April marked President Trump’s first 100 days in office, a period that has brought extreme uncertainty and tariffs that have shaken global markets. After pulling back 5% in March, the proverbial “shit” hit the fan on the 2nd of...
When it rains it pours, as we focused on Trump’s “Liberation Day” to get some clarity on what the imposition of U.S. tariffs would look like and who/what they would be applied to. At the same time, we saw a developing budget situation at home that escalated quickly...
As we head into 2025, South Africa’s political and economic landscape is providing the foundations for an uptick in GDP growth that we haven’t experienced in over a decade. This growth has not yet been incorporated into earnings expectations of domestic...
Heading into 2025 we remain confident we will see another year of solid performance across global equity markets. While we may not see the large, outsized returns we have become used to in the last 2 years, there are enough catalysts and tailwinds to drive mid-teens...
With the end of the year fast approaching it’s a good time to look back at what has proven to be a great year for equity returns despite all the geopolitical events that have unfolded in 2024. Global stock markets have given investors reason to cheer with the S&P...
Jerome Powell, and the US Fed finally gave us what we have been waiting for. The market felt some pressure as we exited August on concerns the Fed was behind the curve and fears grew the US economy was heading into a recession. This headwind turned into a tailwind in...
August was the month where the U.S. Fed’s trade-off of slowing aggregate demand in order to bring down inflation, or slowing aggregate demand too much causing a recession, shifted to the latter. There was risk the Fed was behind the curve which increased the...
This month’s Wood For The Trees will be short and punchy, given that we have recently sent out our Local and Global mid-year updates in July. July proved to be a pivotal month for global equities, as it delivered economic data that finally began to show the...
Click here to access our Local Mid-Year UpdateAs we entered 2024, our outlook was focused on the U.S. Fed beginning to cut rates and the positive catalyst that it would provide to equity markets. Rate markets projected 6 cuts for 2024 with the first cut set to occur...
Click here to access our Global Mid-Year Update We started off the year looking forward to the initiation of the decreasing interest rate cycle. South African equity was priced at a significant discount given the economic climate and expectations of a potential...
The South African national elections took center stage in May and the outcomes that will unfold will no doubt be front and center over the next few weeks. While global markets continue to perform well, most of our attention this week will be on what’s going on...
What resulted came in far short of this with the ANC falling to 40.2% (from 57% in 2019), DA 21.8% (from 20.7%), MK 14.6% (from not existing sixth months ago) and the EFF 9.5% (from 10.8%). Scource: aljazeera.com: South Africa elections results-2024 A drop of this...
Throughout the weeklong deadline extension, BHP worked extensively to address concerns AGL had with BHP’s proposal. Despite numerous engagements with AGL and its advisors, as well as the rejection of a third updated bid from BHP, BHP has made the decision to walk away...
The Revised Proposal An all-share offer for Anglo American (AGL) by the BHP Group Preceded by separate demergers by AGL of its entire shareholdings in Anglo American Platinum Limited (AMS) and Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO) to AGL shareholders The two parts of the...
The Revised Proposal An all-share offer for AGL by the BHP Group Preceded by separate demergers by AGL of its entire shareholdings in Anglo American Platinum Limited (AMS) and Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO) to AGL shareholders The two parts of the proposal are...
Global equity markets have been on a tear since October as investors reentered global stock markets ahead of expectations of imminent rate cuts from the major central banks. That narrative changed in April as stronger-than-expected economic data and stickier...
The Proposal An all-share offer for Anglo American (AGL) by the BHP Group Preceded by separate demergers by AGL of its entire shareholdings in Anglo American Platinum limited (AMS) and Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO) to AGL shareholders The two parts of the proposal are...
The US FED has been clear in its narrative, that it is only prepared to cut rates once they are confident that inflation is on a trajectory to return to 2%. Entering 2024, the rates markets were betting on 6 rate cuts for the year with the first cut predicated...
The all-encompassing theme behind the outlook for world markets in 2024 is the decreasing interest rate cycle. South Africa, like the rest of the world, will follow the lead of the U.S. Fed on when it begins its cutting cycle. While markets continue to adjust...
2024 is set to be an interesting year as central banks shift gear and move into the next stage of the rate cycle. While interest rate cuts will undoubtedly play a leading role in the direction of global equity markets, countries making up nearly 70% of global GDP will...
Christmas came early for global stock markets in November. All global indices finished the month up significantly. The S&P 500 was up 8.7% for the month, representing the best monthly performance since July 2022. The catalyst for the big move in risk assets was...
Global equity indices saw declines for the third month in a row. The S&P 500 declined 2.2% in October, sending the index down 8.8% over the last 3 months.October saw more of the same, better-than-expected economic data demonstrating a resilient US economy with...
As we are all aware, trees don’t grow to the sky and markets don’t go up in a straight line. If you were not aware of this, the market’s performance in September definitely demonstrated it. The S&P 500 finished down more than 5% in September bringing its YTD...
The once darling of the stock market has had its fair share of challenges. Some originating from its own decisions, others from factors outside of management’s control. However, Aspen Pharmacare enters 2024 with a strong balance sheet, drivers for strong earnings...
“We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies”The markets seemed to decompress in August as market participants waited with bated breath for Jerome Powell’s address at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium for any signs as to the Fed’s next move. With the U.S....
If we look back on the year so far, the market has faced a number of obstacles from regional bank failures, escalating tensions between China and the U.S., continuation of the war in Ukraine, to a surge in AI-related technology. While at the same time, central banks...
If we look back on the year so far, the market has faced a number of obstacles from regional bank failures, escalating tensions between China and the U.S., continuation of the war in Ukraine, to a surge in AI-related technology. While at the same time, central banks...
At home, it seems we can’t stop scoring own goals, adding to the list of load shedding, inflation, and interest rate hikes. We heard speculation that the SA government may or may not have supplied weapons to Russia. While a who’s who in government came out and denied...
As we head into the second half of the year, we take stock of the current situation versus our expectations from the beginning of the year and reassess where the local markets will take us into year end. Our Original Outlook Our initial thesis for 2025 was underpinned...
As we pass through the halfway point of the year, it’s time to look back at our expectations at the start of 2025, assess how these have unfolded and how we see things progressing for the remainder of the year. As we entered 2025, we made the case that global equity...
