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August was the month where the U.S. Fed’s trade-off of slowing aggregate demand in order to bring down inflation, or slowing aggregate demand too much causing a recession, shifted to the latter. There was risk the Fed was behind the curve which increased the...
This month’s Wood For The Trees will be short and punchy, given that we have recently sent out our Local and Global mid-year updates in July. July proved to be a pivotal month for global equities, as it delivered economic data that finally began to show the...
Click here to access our Local Mid-Year UpdateAs we entered 2024, our outlook was focused on the U.S. Fed beginning to cut rates and the positive catalyst that it would provide to equity markets. Rate markets projected 6 cuts for 2024 with the first cut set to occur...
Click here to access our Global Mid-Year Update We started off the year looking forward to the initiation of the decreasing interest rate cycle. South African equity was priced at a significant discount given the economic climate and expectations of a potential...
The South African national elections took center stage in May and the outcomes that will unfold will no doubt be front and center over the next few weeks. While global markets continue to perform well, most of our attention this week will be on what’s going on...
What resulted came in far short of this with the ANC falling to 40.2% (from 57% in 2019), DA 21.8% (from 20.7%), MK 14.6% (from not existing sixth months ago) and the EFF 9.5% (from 10.8%). Scource: aljazeera.com: South Africa elections results-2024 A drop of this...
Throughout the weeklong deadline extension, BHP worked extensively to address concerns AGL had with BHP’s proposal. Despite numerous engagements with AGL and its advisors, as well as the rejection of a third updated bid from BHP, BHP has made the decision to walk away...
The Revised Proposal An all-share offer for Anglo American (AGL) by the BHP Group Preceded by separate demergers by AGL of its entire shareholdings in Anglo American Platinum Limited (AMS) and Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO) to AGL shareholders The two parts of the...
The Revised Proposal An all-share offer for AGL by the BHP Group Preceded by separate demergers by AGL of its entire shareholdings in Anglo American Platinum Limited (AMS) and Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO) to AGL shareholders The two parts of the proposal are...
Global equity markets have been on a tear since October as investors reentered global stock markets ahead of expectations of imminent rate cuts from the major central banks. That narrative changed in April as stronger-than-expected economic data and stickier...
The Proposal An all-share offer for Anglo American (AGL) by the BHP Group Preceded by separate demergers by AGL of its entire shareholdings in Anglo American Platinum limited (AMS) and Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO) to AGL shareholders The two parts of the proposal are...
The US FED has been clear in its narrative, that it is only prepared to cut rates once they are confident that inflation is on a trajectory to return to 2%. Entering 2024, the rates markets were betting on 6 rate cuts for the year with the first cut predicated...
The all-encompassing theme behind the outlook for world markets in 2024 is the decreasing interest rate cycle. South Africa, like the rest of the world, will follow the lead of the U.S. Fed on when it begins its cutting cycle. While markets continue to adjust...
2024 is set to be an interesting year as central banks shift gear and move into the next stage of the rate cycle. While interest rate cuts will undoubtedly play a leading role in the direction of global equity markets, countries making up nearly 70% of global GDP will...
Christmas came early for global stock markets in November. All global indices finished the month up significantly. The S&P 500 was up 8.7% for the month, representing the best monthly performance since July 2022. The catalyst for the big move in risk assets was...
Global equity indices saw declines for the third month in a row. The S&P 500 declined 2.2% in October, sending the index down 8.8% over the last 3 months.October saw more of the same, better-than-expected economic data demonstrating a resilient US economy with...
As we are all aware, trees don’t grow to the sky and markets don’t go up in a straight line. If you were not aware of this, the market’s performance in September definitely demonstrated it. The S&P 500 finished down more than 5% in September bringing its YTD...
The once darling of the stock market has had its fair share of challenges. Some originating from its own decisions, others from factors outside of management’s control. However, Aspen Pharmacare enters 2024 with a strong balance sheet, drivers for strong earnings...
“We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies”The markets seemed to decompress in August as market participants waited with bated breath for Jerome Powell’s address at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium for any signs as to the Fed’s next move. With the U.S....
If we look back on the year so far, the market has faced a number of obstacles from regional bank failures, escalating tensions between China and the U.S., continuation of the war in Ukraine, to a surge in AI-related technology. While at the same time, central banks...
If we look back on the year so far, the market has faced a number of obstacles from regional bank failures, escalating tensions between China and the U.S., continuation of the war in Ukraine, to a surge in AI-related technology. While at the same time, central banks...
At home, it seems we can’t stop scoring own goals, adding to the list of load shedding, inflation, and interest rate hikes. We heard speculation that the SA government may or may not have supplied weapons to Russia. While a who’s who in government came out and denied...
April felt a little bit like that meme where one guy does something crazy, and the second says to the guy next to him, “hold my beer”. March gave us the second and third largest bank failures in U.S. history, prompting the Fed to step in with emergency lending...
Looking at how the major equity indices finished the month, it is hard to believe what actually transpired in March. In the space of a 2-week period, we had the second and third largest bank failures in US history, as well as Credit Suisse, a “too big to fail” bank,...
After a tremendous start to the year in January, with the market looking forward to Fed rates peaking in May and forecasting several cuts going into the end of the year. We hit some turbulence in February as global markets faced stronger-than-expected economic data in...
New Year New Opportunity As set out in our Offshore Outlook – Mirror Image, the major news outlets continue to beat the drum on the impending doom of global recession, yet the expectations are for a recession that is mild; inflicting a de minimis amount of pain across...
As we look into what to expect in 2023 for the global equity markets, the term “Mirror Image” comes to mind.
SA Listed Property remains one of our most favoured sectors. In our opinion it offers significant value at current levels and results across the sector attest to this. In this short video we take a look into the most recent price movement addressing the key points of...
November continued where October left off and reminded us that is it important to remain patient and invested. Over the last 2 months the S&P 500 has rallied 14.5%, while closer to home the JSE All Share was up a whopping 18.3%. As of this writing, the All Share...
October brings with it the annual Halloween festivities and is traditionally a time for remembering the dead. Global markets certainly came to the party and presented investors with a treat. After a tough September, October gave investors some respite, delivering 7%...
September proved an eventful month for all the wrong reasons. Substantial declines across the globe characterised price action, with the US setting the tone from the middle of the month after another poor inflation print. Central bankers, determined to get the...
Everybody exhale… After holding their breath for 6 months in the face of the consistent selling of risk assets so far this year, investors collectively breathed out in July as this month marked the first meaningful bounce in risk assets from market lows this year....
The lead graphic for this month was just going to be the four letters highlighted in colour above. I thought it was pretty self-explanatory until I started googling what these four letters could also stand for. It's a rabbit hole, don't go there. But one of the tamer...
With central bank policy decisions front and centre this year, we felt it appropriate to use our opening graphic to clarify some of the terminology likely to be used by market commentators. Unfortunately, for the bulls, we'll be looking at the left-hand side of the...
We believe DIS is currently offering a very compelling entry point into a top-quality company with huge brand power; supporting our investing theme of Services & Experiences plus it has significant pricing power. At current levels DIS is trading at a large...
Mirror ImageCurrent valuations suggest an environment that is under significantly greater stress than what the actual real economy suggests. SA corporates remain cash rich, consumers are financially better off than they have been for many years and SA banks are over...
ANOTHER GOOD YEARWe enter 2022 quietly confident that Global Equity markets can continue their strong run of delivering positive returns. Although expectations will have to be dialled down from the 20%+ returns experienced over the past 3 years, to a more normal...
Unfortunately, there was only ever going to be one lead image for our November newsletter: Omicron. You will all have read by now the controversy surrounding the measures taken by international governments against South Africa in a poorly researched response to the...
We’ve led with an earnings season graphic this month as we acknowledge yet another stellar reporting season for the vast majority of the S&P500. Up more than 40% year on year, with results beating expectations by a healthy 10%. No wonder equity markets pushed higher...
Current regulatory headwinds are putting pressure on the valuations of many Chinese tech giants by depressing valuations, and causing a distraction from the evident scale, dominance, and cash-generative nature of these businesses.We remain confident in the growth...
The last month of winter in the southern hemisphere proved to be a profitable month for risk assets as the All Country World Index pushed higher by more than 2%. There was a strong trend to most sectors barring commodities, which took a breather, particularly in the...
The SA banks continue to lag the rest of the market as far as performance is concerned, even though the macroeconomic environment is normalizing, and the credit risks remain within normal ranges. We continue to believe current valuations offer an attractive entry...
New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU)EDU is a large-scale leading provider of private tutoring in China, that offer services both offline and online. In a country where education is one of the main keys to social mobility, Chinese parents are often willing...
There is a general negative perception that South African consumers are under strain, and this is flowing through into suppressed valuations of consumer-focused cyclical stocks in general and the apparel retail and bank stocks specifically. While 2020 was a...
This month’s lead graphic is a reminder that the world is not yet clear of the threat posed by COVID-19. And while much of the First World has made significant strides in vaccinating their population, the emergence of the Delta variant has raised further fresh...
A lot of news is currently circling about a potential pick-up in inflation causing the market to crash. Let’s be clear, there is no direct link to inflation having a negative impact on equity markets. The impact on equity markets will come from the US Fed having to...
We’re a little quieter this month after the spate of earnings reports that came through for the Q1 earnings season in April. Just a 2-month breather from here before it all winds up again offshore. This month was another strong performance from Local equities, with a...
